A new study from Kagan Research, The State of High Definition Television
2006, predicts nearly 20 million HD sets will be sold to US consumers this year
and 104 million cumulative HD sets will be sold to consumers by 2008. The sales
penetration, Kagan said, will result in 78 million domestic households ready to
view high-def video.
According to the report, a critical factor in the success of HD set adoption
is price. "We project the average price of an HD set will decline some 38% by
2010, reducing the average price to $1,139," said Patrick Johnson, Kagan
associate analyst. "Rapid price declines, coupled with increasing levels of HD
programming, will drive the number of HD households to 97 million in 2010,
penetrating more than 82 percent of total TV households."
With more than 1,500 of the 1,749 full-power TV stations in the U.S.
broadcasting in digital as of Dec. 31, 2005, HD set sales now constituting some
85 percent of digital TV sales and a February 2009 hard date signed into law,
the HDTV supply chain is heating up, the report says.
Kagan's annual edition of The State of High Definition Television 2006
provides an in-depth look at programming strategies, regulatory issues regarding
the transition to digital and 10-year forecasts for high-definition DVDs,
digital sets, HD sets, and HD subscribers for both cable and satellite
operators. Relevant industry statistics and exclusive projections based on
Kagan's respected forecasting model include:
- The number of cable HD subs grew from 2.3 million in 2004 to 3.8 million in
2005. At the end of this year, Kagan estimates this figure will grow to 6.6
million and by 2010, the number of cable HD subs will surpass 30 million
- The number of DBS HD subs in 2005 reached 1.8 million. DirecTV's rollout of
four additional satellites as well as EchoStar's and DirecTV's commitment to
local HD programming will drive HD subscriptions and by 2010 Kagan projects
there will be nearly 19 million HD subscribers.
-- Kagan estimates that just 1.7 million of the sets purchased by
over-the-air (OTA) households this year will be digital.
For table of contents and more information on The State of High Definition
Television 2006 go to http://www.kagan.com/HDTV-2.
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